PTBA, ITMG dan ADRO, Which one is the best

DATA untuk analisa:

Date: 01-04-10 FINANCIAL RATIO COMPARISON 2009
Sector: COAL MINING
Ranked by: ROE
www.investdata.net

|-- ---- ------- --- --- --- ---- ---- --- ---------- ===--------- ===------ --------- ----------- ----------- ----- ------ --------
| | | |(1) (2) (3)| (4) (5)|(6)| (7) | (10) | (8) | (9) |(11)(12)(13|(14)(15)(16| (17)| (18) | MARKET|
| | | SALES |GRS OPR NET| |ROA| ROE | PER | COP | CLOP |YoY GROWTH |Q4/Q3 GROWT| | LAST | CAP. |
|NO|STOC|bio Rp |MAR PRF PRF| PBV DER| | |*LAST*| | | | OPR NET| OPR NET| PEG |PRICE |bio Rp |
| | |mio USD| % % % | | | Q3 Q4|QUARTR|TDY Q4 Q3|TDY Q4 Q3|TDY Q4 Q3|SAL PRF PRF|SAL PRF PRF| | |mio Usd|
|-- ---- ------- === === === ==== ==== === === ---****** --- -- -- === -- -- === -- -- --- --- === --- --- === =====|======|=======|
| 1 PTBA 8.947| 54 39 30| 7,2| 0,4| 33| 55 47|35 20|15| 14 10|11| 11 8|12| 11 8| 24 42| 59| 16 -33|-21| 0,26|18.050| 41.589|
| 2 ITMG$ 1.508| 37 28 22| 4,6| 0,5| 28| 49 42|35 13|10| 8 6| 8| 6 5| 9| 7 5| 14 28| 42| 25 -25|-34| 0,25|38.500| 3.625|
| 3 ADRO 26.938| 40 36 16| 3,7| 1,4| 10| 27 25|19 18|14| 12 9| 6| 5 4| 9| 8 6| 48 135|392| -2 -11|-32| 0,04| 2.025| 64.771|
| 4 INDY 2.486| 24 7 29| 2,3| 1,1| 6| 14 13|12 19|17| 15 17|66| 60 95|99| 93129| 7 55|-33|-21 -34|-16|-0,53| 2.450| 12.757|
| 5 BYAN 7.752| 14 4 1| 8,4| 1,9| 1| 9 5|-6***|**|138 80|55| 51 37|68| 64 45| 58 81|558|-67 ***|***| 0,27| 6.100| 20.333|
|-- ---- ------- === === === ==== ==== === === --- ====== -- -- -- === -- -- === -- -- --- --- === --- --- === =====|======|=======|

1. GRS MRG: Gross Margin to Sales (in %)
2. OPR PRF: Operating Profit to Sales (in %)
3. NET PRF: Net Profit to Sales (in %)
4. PBV: Stock Price to Book value
5. DER: Debt Equity Ratio
6. ROA: Return On Asset (in %)
7. ROE: Return On Equity (in %)
QTR: ROE Quartely, using Most Recent Quarter's Net Profit
8. COP: Capitalisation to Operating Profit (in years)
9. CLOP: Capitalisation + Liability to Operating profit (in years)
10. PER: Price Earning Ratio
QTR: PER using Most Recent Quarter's Net Profit
11. Sales Growth in % (Year on Year comparison)
12. Operating Profit Growth in % (YOY comparison)
13. Net Profit Growth in % - (YOY comparison)
14. Sales Growth in % - (Most Recent Quarter comparison)
15. Operating Profit Growth in % - (MRQ comparison)
16. Net Profit Growth in % - (MRQ comparison)
17. PEG = PER / Net Profit Growth

- http://www.investdata.net/QZ94COA6.TXT

Didapat data untuk PTBA, ITMG dan ADRO:
- Gross margin: 54, 37, 40
PTBA punya selesih harga jual - cost yg terbaik.
- Operating profit: 39, 28, 36
ITMG punya laba operasi yg terkecil
- Net profit: 30, 22, 16
PTBA bisa menghasilkan laba bersih hampir 2x lebih besar dibanding ADRO (30 vs 16)
Tapi perbandingan laba operasi PTBA dan ADRO yg mempengaruhi Valuasi saham tidak terlalu berbeda jauh 39 vs 36, jadi ADRO masih oke.
- DER: 0,4 0,5 1,4
ADRO punya ratio Utang yg lebih besar dari competitornya, ini akan memperbesar biaya bunga dan mengurangi ROE.
- ROE: 47, 42 dan 25
PTBA is the best, ADRO perlu tambah modal biar ROE nya naik.
- PER: 15, 10 dan 14
ITMG termurah dalam skala PER
- COP: 11, 8, 6
ADRO termurah dalam skala COP
- CLOP: 12, 9 dan 9
ITMG dan ADRO sama murahnya.
- Sales Growth: 24, 14, 48
ADRO the best, ITMG the worst
- Operating Profit Growth: 42, 28, 135
ADRO is the BEST ABIS, Sale naik 48% tapi laba operasi naik 135%, ini KEREN ABIS !!!

Kesimpulan:
- ADRO THE BEST... hehehe...


Ini buat Invest yah... karena kalo short term sih kita musti
liat:
- Capitalisasi pasar, berat engga ngangkatnya pada wave 5 ?.

Jadi kalo trading sih kita berhubungan dengan TA, Elliott wave dan strategi/taktik BD yg lagi digelar...

bagaimana dengan itmg?

bagaimana dengan itmg?



http://www.trader2000.com/pwtitmg.png

- ITMG masih bullish tapi
- Wave 3 is a Run Away wave, jadi ada resiko turun dulu.
- Wave 3 sudah naik diatas Fibo 162%
- Wave 3 sudah naik 5 hari berturut2
- Kalo turun dibawah support sebaiknya Profit Taking dulu

ITMG Running in Wave 3 in Upper degree Wave 3

ITMG Running in Wave 3 in Upper degree Wave 3



http://www.invest2000.net/pwlitmg.png

ITMG 35900 +1750 +5,12

15:50
Komporin BC



- INDF http://www.invest2000.net/pwlindf.png



- ITMG http://www.invest2000.net/pwlitmg.png



- PGAS http://www.invest2000.net/pwlpgas.png



- LSIP http://www.invest2000.net/pwllsip.png



- BBCA http://www.invest2000.net/pwlbbca.png



- INKP http://www.invest2000.net/pwlinkp.png




- SMRA http://www.invest2000.net/pwlsmra.png

ITMG: Final Result 2009

ITMG: Final Result 2009


Please find attached:
- http://www.investdata.net/QYITMG.TXT

ITMG Date : 25-02-10
Financial Performance (in million US$)
www.investdata.net

2009| 2008|
25-02-10 ....Q4 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Sales 1.508 1.045 675 346 1.316 897 516 218
COGS 937 617 406 205 839 601 364 167
Gross Marg 570 427 269 141 477 296 151 50
GM (%) 37 40 39 40 36 33 29 23
Opr Profit 435 341 213 113| 340 200 95 25
OP (%) 28 32 31 32 25 22 18 11
Net Profit 335 265 158 101| 234 130 69 18
NP (%) 22 25 23 29 17 14 13 8
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Stk Price 3,40 3,38 2,61 2,15 1,06| 1,13 2,37 3,62 2,37
Book Value 0,70 0,64 0,62 0,63| 0,54 0,47 0,45 0,42
PBV 4,88 4,84 4,08 3,47 1,68| 2,09 5,08 8,07 5,63
DER 0,52 0,56 0,42 0,37| 0,60 0,78 0,68 0,65
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
ROE (%) 42 49 45 56| 38 33 27 15
ROE (Qtr) 35 59 32 56 68 46 39 15
ROA (%) 28 31 32 41| 24 18 16 9
Opr prof/share 0,39 0,30 0,19 0,10| 0,30 0,18 0,08 0,02
EPS 0,30 0,24 0,14 0,09| 0,21 0,12 0,06 0,02
EPS (Qtr) 0,06 0,09 0,05 0,09| 0,09 0,05 0,04 0,02
EPS (Annu) 0,30 0,31 0,28 0,36| 0,21 0,15 0,12 0,07
PER 11,44 11,37 8,31 7,64 2,96| 5,43 15,39 29,46 35,26
PER (Qtr) 13,77 13,69 6,87 10,64 2,96| 3,05 10,98 20,27 35,26
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
COP (year) 8,81 8,75 6,47 5,67 2,64 3,75 10,01 21,33 26,08
CLOP(year) 9,75 9,70 7,37 6,35 3,22 4,84 11,54 23,12 29,12
CLOP(Qtr) 11,18 6,57 6,80 3,22 2,94 7,38 15,78 29,12
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Sales Growth(%) 14 16 30 58
Op.Prof Growth(%) 28 70 122 344
Net.Prof/EPS Grow 42 104 128 437
PEG (<1) 0,27 0,08 0,06 0,01
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Sales(Qtr) 462 369 328 346 419 380 297 218
COGS (Qtr) 320 211 200 205 238 236 196 167
Gross Marg(Qtr) 142 158 128 141 181 144 100 50
GM (%) 30 42 38 40 43 37 33 23
OP.PR (Qtr) 94 127 99 113 139 104 70 25
OP % 20 34 30 32 33 27 23 11
NET.PR (Qtr) 69 107 56 101 104 60 50 18
NP % 15 28 17 29 24 15 16 8
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Asset 1.198 1.128 987 981| 979 934 849 785
Liability 411 406 289 266| 368 408 343 310
Equity 787 721 697 714| 610 525 506 475
Capitalis. 3.839 3.815 2.946 2.423 1.202| 1.275 2.672 4.088 2.672
Share(mil) 1.129 1.129 1.129 1.129 1.129 1.129 1.129 1.129
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------

Note: USD= 11000
See ERROR and OMISSION

Note:
- Meskipun Q4 mengalami penurunan, secara overall: performance 2009 bagus...