Sunday, September 5, 2010

INCO masih yg terbaik dari Trio Macan

INCO masih yg terbaik dari Trio Macan

Pilihan investasi Pak Tbumi untuk INCO ternyata memang yg terbaik diantara Trio Macan seperti ditunjukan worksheet ini:

ate: 27-08-10 FINANCIAL RATIO COMPARISON
Sector: MINING METAL
Ranked by: ROE
www.investdata.net

|-- ---- ------- --- --- --- ---- ---- --- ---------- ===--------- ===------ --------- ----------- ----------- ----- ------ --------
| | | |(1) (2) (3)| (4) (5)|(6)| (7) | (10) | (8) | (9) |(11)(12)(13|(14)(15)(16| (17)| (18) | MARKET|
| | | SALES |GRS OPR NET| |ROA| ROE | PER | COP | CLOP |YoY GROWTH |Q2/Q1 GROWT| | LAST | CAP. |
|NO|STOC|bio Rp |MAR PRF PRF| PBV DER| | |*LAST*| | | | OPR NET| OPR NET| PEG |PRICE |bio Rp |
| | |mio USD| % % % | | | Q1 Q2|QUARTR|TDY Q2 Q1|TDY Q2 Q1|TDY Q2 Q1|SAL PRF PRF|SAL PRF PRF| | |mio Usd|
|-- ---- ------- === === === ==== ==== === === ---****** --- -- -- === -- -- === -- -- --- --- === --- *** *** =====|======|=======|
| 1 INCO$ 619| 49 47 35| 2,8| 0,3| 20| 20 26|34 8|10| 9 16| 8| 6 12| 8| 7 14|124 807|532| 42 92| 86| 0,02| 4.325| 4.722|
| 2 ANTM 4.315| 32 25 17| 2,2| 0,2| 14| 9 17|25 8|12| 12 28| 8| 8 16| 9| 9 17| -2 447|237| 60 117|174| 0,05| 2.050| 19.553|
| 3 TINS 3.749| 18 11 8| 3,3| 0,4| 12| 15 18|20 16|18| 16 21|14| 13 12|16| 14 13| 5 140|652| 4 -32| 27| 0,03| 2.400| 12.079|
|-- ---- ------- === === === ==== ==== === === --- ====== -- -- -- === -- -- === -- -- --- --- === --- --- === =====|======|=======|

1. GRS MRG: Gross Margin to Sales (in %)
2. OPR PRF: Operating Profit to Sales (in %)
3. NET PRF: Net Profit to Sales (in %)
4. PBV: Stock Price to Book value
5. DER: Debt Equity Ratio
6. ROA: Return On Asset (in %)
7. ROE: Return On Equity (in %)
QTR: ROE Quartely, using Most Recent Quarter's Net Profit
8. COP: Capitalisation to Operating Profit (in years)
9. CLOP: Capitalisation + Liability to Operating profit (in years)
10. PER: Price Earning Ratio
QTR: PER using Most Recent Quarter's Net Profit
11. Sales Growth in % (Year on Year comparison)
12. Operating Profit Growth in % (YOY comparison)
13. Net Profit Growth in % - (YOY comparison)
14. Sales Growth in % - (Most Recent Quarter comparison)
15. Operating Profit Growth in % - (MRQ comparison)
16. Net Profit Growth in % - (MRQ comparison)
17. PEG = PER / Net Profit Growth

- http://www.investdata.net/QZA2MIN6.TXT
- Cuman kalo soal masa depan harga INCO itu sih tergantung harga nickel dimasa depan

Attachment:
INCO Date : 03-09-10
Financial Performance (in million US$)
www.investdata.net

2010 2009| 2008|
03-09-10 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4 ....Q3|
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Sales 619 255 760 526 276 121 1.312 1.132
COGS 312 150 516 373 240 114 808 632
Gross Marg 306 105 244 152 36 6 503 499
GM (%) 49 41 32 28 13 5 38 44
Opr Profit 293 100| 231 144 32 5| 478 474
OP (%) 47 39 30 27 11 4 36 41
Net Profit 218 76| 170 110 34 17| 359 369
NP (%) 35 29 22 20 12 14 27 32
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Stk Price 0,46 0,41 0,52| 0,40 0,46 0,46 0,24| 0,21 0,34
Book Value 0,17 0,15| 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,15| 0,15 0,15
PBV 2,75 2,47 3,40| 2,52 2,78 2,91 1,58| 1,39 2,19
DER 0,30 0,38| 0,29 0,19 0,18 0,20| 0,21 0,22
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
ROE (%) 26 20| 10 9 4 4| 23 32
ROE (Qtr) 34 20 15 18 4 4 -2 19
ROA (%) 20 14| 8 7 3 3| 19 26
Opr prof/share 0,03 0,01| 0,02 0,01 0,00 0,00| 0,05 0,05
EPS 0,02 0,01| 0,02 0,01 0,00 0,00| 0,04 0,04
EPS (Qtr) 0,01 0,01| 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00| -0,00 0,01
EPS (Annu) 0,04 0,03| 0,02 0,01 0,01 0,01| 0,04 0,05
PER 10,42 9,36 16,91| 23,39 30,77 65,52 35,36| 5,86 6,82
PER (Qtr) 7,99 7,18 16,91| 16,62 14,93 65,09 35,36|-53,72 11,42
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
COP (year) 7,76 6,97 12,83 17,19 23,60 70,02 116,87 4,41 5,31
CLOP(year) 8,61 7,82 14,27 19,16 25,20 74,40 131,34 5,08 5,84
CLOP(Qtr) 6,55 5,95 14,27 12,64 10,83 44,32 131,34 144,21 15,03
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Sales Growth(%) 124 110 -42 -53
Op.Prof Growth(%) 807 1.833 -51 -69
Net.Prof/EPS Grow 532 343 -52 -70
PEG (<1) 0,02 0,05| -0,44 -0,44
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Sales(Qtr) 363 255 234 249 154 121 180 312
COGS (Qtr) 162 150 142 133 125 114 175 244
Gross Marg(Qtr) 201 105 92 116 29 6 4 68
GM (%) 55 41 39 46 18 5 2 21
OP.PR (Qtr) 193 100 87 111 27 5 4 61
OP % 53 39 37 44 17 4 2 19
NET.PR (Qtr) 142 76 59 75 17 17 -9 73
NP % 39 29 25 30 11 14 -5 23
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Asset 2.158 2.094| 2.038 1.938 1.838 1.838| 1.842 1.864
Liability 498 576| 456 306 282 300| 321 333
Equity 1.660 1.517| 1.581 1.631 1.555 1.538| 1.520 1.530
Capitalis. 4.558 4.094 5.159| 3.985 4.531 4.531 2.429| 2.107 3.357
Share(mil) 9.936 9.936 9.936 9.936 9.936 9.936 9.936 9.936
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------

Note: USD= 9100
See ERROR and OMISSION
- http://www.investdata.net/QQBINCO.TXT
ANTM Date : 03-09-10
Financial Performance (in billion Rp)
www.investdata.net

2010 2009| 2008|
03-09-10 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4 ....Q3|
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Sales 4.315 1.655 8.711 6.267 4.406 2.641 9.591 7.576
COGS 2.908 1.180 7.513 5.529 3.958 2.479 6.940 4.852
Gross Marg 1.406 474 1.198 737 447 162 2.651 2.723
GM (%) 32 28 13 11 10 6 27 35
Opr Profit 1.088 343| 587 337 198 54| 1.713 2.054
OP (%) 25 20 6 5 4 2 17 27
Net Profit 756 201| 604 292 223 89| 1.368 1.624
NP (%) 17 12 6 4 5 3 14 21
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Stk Price 2.100 1.940 2.400| 2.200 2.450 2.025 1.090| 1.090 1.460
Book Value 905 875| 854 821 809 854| 845 868
PBV 2,32 2,14 2,74| 2,58 2,98 2,50 1,28| 1,29 1,68
DER 0,23 0,21| 0,22 0,28 0,28 0,27| 0,27 0,27
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
ROE (%) 17 9| 7 4 5 4| 16 26
ROE (Qtr) 25 9 15 3 6 4 -12 7
ROA (%) 14 8| 6 3 4 3| 13 20
Opr prof/share 114 35| 61 35 20 5| 179 215
EPS 79 21| 63 30 23 9| 143 170
EPS (Qtr) 58 21| 32 7 14 9| -26 16
EPS (Annu) 158 84| 63 40 46 37| 143 227
PER 13,24 12,23 28,34| 34,73 59,89 43,16 28,92| 7,60 6,43
PER (Qtr) 9,03 8,35 28,34| 16,83 84,81 36,07 28,92|-10,14 21,87
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
COP (year) 9,20 8,50 16,67 35,72 51,97 48,54 47,51 6,07 5,08
CLOP(year) 10,11 9,40 17,93 38,77 56,83 54,00 57,41 7,34 5,90
CLOP(Qtr) 7,38 6,87 17,93 22,75 46,21 37,24 57,41 -9,21 60,78
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Sales Growth(%) -2 -37 -9 -17
Op.Prof Growth(%) 447 527 -65 -83
Net.Prof/EPS Grow 237 124 -55 -81
PEG (<1) 0,05 0,23| -0,62 -0,73
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Sales(Qtr) 2.660 1.655 2.443 1.861 1.764 2.641 2.015 2.006
COGS (Qtr) 1.728 1.180 1.983 1.571 1.479 2.479 2.087 1.659
Gross Marg(Qtr) 932 474 460 290 285 162 -72 346
GM (%) 35 28 18 15 16 6 -3 17
OP.PR (Qtr) 745 343 250 138 144 54 -341 66
OP % 28 20 10 7 8 2 -16 3
NET.PR (Qtr) 554 201 311 68 133 89 -256 159
NP % 20 12 12 3 7 3 -12 7
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Asset 10.611 10.074| 9.940 10.023 9.893 10.316|10.245 10.528
Liability 1.970 1.723| 1.791 2.185 2.176 2.165| 2.181 2.245
Equity 8.641 8.351| 8.148 7.838 7.717 8.151| 8.063 8.282
Capitalis. 20.030 18.504 22.892|20.984 23.369 19.315 10.396|10.396 13.926
Share(mil) 9.538 9.538 9.538 9.538 9.538 9.538 9.538 9.538
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------

See ERROR and OMISSION
- http://www.investdata.net/QQBANTM.TXT
TINS Date : 03-09-10
Financial Performance (in billion Rp)
www.investdata.net

2010 2009| 2008|
03-09-10 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4 ....Q3|
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Sales 3.749 1.835 7.709 5.534 3.539 1.587 9.053 6.894
COGS 3.060 1.465 6.556 4.806 3.164 1.462 6.334 4.297
Gross Marg 689 369 1.152 728 374 125 2.718 2.596
GM (%) 18 20 14 13 10 7 30 37
Opr Profit 414 248| 688 401 172 18| 2.070 2.219
OP (%) 11 13 8 7 4 1 22 32
Net Profit 322 141| 313 170 42 14| 1.342 1.491
NP (%) 8 7 4 3 1 0 14 21
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Stk Price 2.400 2.150 2.375| 2.000 2.150 2.025 1.060| 1.080 1.660
Book Value 710 708| 681 655 631 763| 759 783
PBV 3,38 3,03 3,35| 2,93 3,28 3,21 1,39| 1,42 2,12
DER 0,41 0,38| 0,42 0,50 0,54 0,49| 0,51 0,59
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
ROE (%) 18 15| 9 6 2 1| 35 50
ROE (Qtr) 20 15 16 15 3 1 -15 38
ROA (%) 12 11| 6 4 1 1| 23 31
Opr prof/share 82 49| 136 79 34 3| 411 441
EPS 64 28| 62 33 8 2| 266 296
EPS (Qtr) 35 28| 28 25 5 2| -29 75
EPS (Annu) 128 112| 62 45 17 11| 266 395
PER 18,74 16,79 21,07| 32,08 47,47 118,99 92,36| 4,05 4,20
PER (Qtr) 16,73 14,99 21,07| 17,62 21,11 89,76 92,36| -9,10 5,50
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
COP (year) 14,56 13,04 12,05 14,62 20,20 29,49 71,45 2,63 2,82
CLOP(year) 16,33 14,81 13,43 16,69 23,29 34,44 96,62 3,57 3,61
CLOP(Qtr) 20,30 18,41 13,43 10,02 13,62 19,31 96,62 -12,36 4,88
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Sales Growth(%) 5 15 -14 -19
Op.Prof Growth(%) 140 1.228 -66 -81
Net.Prof/EPS Grow 652 881 -76 -88
PEG (<1) 0,03 0,02| -0,42 -0,54
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Sales(Qtr) 1.914 1.835 2.175 1.995 1.951 1.587 2.158 2.691
COGS (Qtr) 1.594 1.465 1.750 1.641 1.702 1.462 2.036 2.028
Gross Marg(Qtr) 319 369 424 353 249 125 121 663
GM (%) 16 20 19 17 12 7 5 24
OP.PR (Qtr) 166 248 286 229 154 18 -149 547
OP % 8 13 13 11 7 1 -6 20
NET.PR (Qtr) 180 141 142 128 28 14 -149 379
NP % 9 7 6 6 1 0 -6 14
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Asset 5.047 4.933| 4.855 4.956 4.889 5.723| 5.785 6.281
Liability 1.471 1.368| 1.425 1.657 1.711 1.879| 1.964 2.337
Equity 3.575 3.565| 3.430 3.299 3.178 3.843| 3.820 3.944
Capitalis. 12.079 10.820 11.953|10.066 10.820 10.191 5.335| 5.435 8.354
Share(mil) 5.033 5.033 5.033 5.033 5.033 5.033 5.033 5.033
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------

See ERROR and OMISSION
- http://www.investdata.net/QQBTINS.TXT

Trio macan INCO, ANTM dan TINS adalah istilah yg biasa dipakai pada periode sebelum krisis 2008. Saat itu ANTM saban hari dikomporin ama pak Tbum, malah ada analisa yg bilang ANTM ke 200 ribu, dan saat itu memang saham2 tsb mengalami kejayaan luar biasa sehingga disebut Trio Macan.

Pada saat itu anda belum jadi member OB.

Jadi gimana kalo istilah tsb sekarang diganti jadi Macan Ompong, dan macan ompong terbaik sekarang lagi diternakin ama Pak Tbumi.

Santai aja ama INCO, laporan keuangan Q3 masih turun karena harga nickel pada Q3 lebih rendah dibanding Q2.

Harga nickel belum jelas mau kemana ?

Pertama nih Pak Tbumi kirim grafik... hehehe...

Nih embah kirim grafik nickel yg lebih complete jadi engga BIAS...

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html#1year

Grafik dari TBumi

Nickel lagi trend naik di market.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/Nickel-futures-maintain-upward-trend-on-short-covering/articleshow/6460352.cms
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