Metode GORDON GROWTH...

Metode GORDON GROWTH...(Astra Graphia: BUY - A fast-growing dividend play)

Salah satu cara untuk menghitung Valuasi saham secara sederhana ialah dengan menggunakan metode Gordon Growth, cara ini sudah dibahas dulu oleh pak Bagus.

Contoh soal ASGR yg dikirimkan Pak Joe:

- Management expects FY10 net profit to increase by 35% y/y to Rp90b
- Revenue to grow by 5% y/y to Rp1,400b.
- For FY11, it estimates sales growth at 10% y/y.
- As at end-1H10, the company has no debt. With ample cash on hand, it is mulling acquisitions to venture into the
information and communication technology (ICT) business.
- Based on the Gordon Growth Model with a cost of equity of 16.5%, we set the company's fair value at Rp1,050 per share
or 12.4x FY11F PER, implying an upside of 110%. Reiterate BUY.

Rumus Gordon Growth:
- Harga wajar = D /(k-G)

D = Expected deviden tahun depan
k = Required Rate of Return bagi Investor saham G = Growth rate dari Deviden

Disini si analis menggunakan angka k = 0,165

Contoh:
Kalo kita pakai:
- Deviden tahunn depan D = 32
- Tingkat pertumbuhan deviden = 10%

Maka harga saham = 32 / (0,165 - 0,1) = 32 / 0,065 = 492

Si analis pake angka Deviden BERAPA, kok bisa beda jauh ?.

Setahu embah deviden ASGR cuman seupil ?.

Si analis sepertinya pake expected Deviden = 68, padahal EPS H1/2010 ASGR cuman 32 atau 64 setahun.

Jadi semua laba, 100% mau dibagikan jadi deviden ?.

Coba DIBANTU cari data deviden 2009 dan 2010 (expected)

Coba kita perkirakan angka yg dipake si Analis:

- Profit H1/2010 = 43 setahun 86,
- EPS H1/2010 = 32 setahun 64
- Management bilang Profit 2010 = 90
- EPS expected = 90/86 x 64 = 67

- Rumus Deviden Growth G = RR x ROE
- dimana Retention Rate = 1 - DPR (devidend Payout Ratio)
- Anggap ASGR punya policy bayar Deviden tinggi yaitu 70% dari EPS
- Maka RR = (1- DPR) = (1 - 0,7) = 0,3
- ROE H1/2010 = 21%, assume ROE 2010 = 21%

Maka G = RR X ROE = 0,3 X 21% = 0,063

Harga wajar = D /(k-G)
= 67 / (0,165 - 0,063)
= 67/0,102 = 658

Coba kita pake EPS 2011 dengan asumsi profit naik 20% pada 2010 EPS = 67 X 1,2 = 80

Harga wajar = 80 / (0,102) = 785

784 masih dibawah harga wajar si analis di 1050

Masih SELISIH ???