Teka teki TRIO METAL
Udah jangan ngomongin embah aja nanti embah jadi GR... hehehe...
Nih, embah kasih TEKA TEKI kalo engga ada kerjaan di akhir minggu:
- Harga base metal naek terus, malah harga timah menembus harga tertinggi 2008
- Harga nickel masih jauh SEKALI dari harga 2008 tapi performance INCO bagus, Hebat
pak TBUMI... hehehe..
- Harga emas melejit tapi kenapa performance Q3 ANTM buruk SEKALI.
Coba jelaskan kenapa ini terjadi ?, apakah ini TAL mirip AALI pada Q1/2010 dan Q3/2010 ?.
Net Profit Q1, Q2 dan Q3/2010:
- ANTM : 201, 554 dan 194 (Q3 ngegabruk)
- TINS : 141, 180 dan 153
- INCO : 76, 142 dan 109
Data lengkapnya:
ANTM Date : 29-10-10
Financial Performance (in billion Rp)
www.investdata.net
2010 2009| 2008|
29-10-10 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4|
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Sales 5.728 4.315 1.655 8.711 6.267 4.406 2.641 9.591
COGS 3.908 2.908 1.180 7.513 5.529 3.958 2.479 6.940
Gross Marg 1.820 1.406 474 1.198 737 447 162 2.651
GM (%) 31 32 28 13 11 10 6 27
Opr Profit 1.268 1.088 343| 587 337 198 54| 1.713
OP (%) 22 25 20 6 5 4 2 17
Net Profit 950 756 201| 604 292 223 89| 1.368
NP (%) 16 17 12 6 4 5 3 14
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Stk Price 2.550 2.375 1.940 2.400| 2.200 2.450 2.025 1.090| 1.090
Book Value 926 905 875| 854 821 809 854| 845
PBV 2,75 2,56 2,14 2,74| 2,58 2,98 2,50 1,28| 1,29
DER 0,20 0,23 0,21| 0,22 0,24 0,28 0,27| 0,27
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
ROE (%) 14 17 9| 7 4 5 4| 16
ROE (Qtr) 8 25 9 15 3 6 4 -12
ROA (%) 11 14 8| 6 4 4 3| 13
Opr prof/share 132 114 35| 61 35 20 5| 179
EPS 99 79 21| 63 30 23 9| 143
EPS (Qtr) 20 58 21| 32 7 14 9| -26
EPS (Annu) 132 158 84| 63 40 46 37| 143
PER 19,19 17,88 12,23 28,34| 34,73 59,89 43,16 28,92| 7,60
PER (Qtr) 31,31 29,16 8,35 28,34| 16,83 84,81 36,07 28,92|-10,14
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
COP (year) 14,38 13,39 8,50 16,67 35,72 51,97 48,54 47,51 6,07
CLOP(year) 15,41 14,42 9,40 17,93 38,77 56,18 54,00 57,41 7,34
CLOP(Qtr) 36,23 33,91 6,87 17,93 22,75 45,68 37,24 57,41 -9,21
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Sales Growth(%) -8 -2 -37 -9
Op.Prof Growth(%) 276 447 527 -65
Net.Prof/EPS Grow 224 237 124 -55
PEG (<1) 0,08 0,05 0,23| -0,62
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Sales(Qtr) 1.413 2.660 1.655 2.443 1.861 1.764 2.641 2.015
COGS (Qtr) 999 1.728 1.180 1.983 1.571 1.479 2.479 2.087
Gross Marg(Qtr) 414 932 474 460 290 285 162 -72
GM (%) 29 35 28 18 15 16 6 -3
OP.PR (Qtr) 179 745 343 250 138 144 54 -341
OP % 12 28 20 10 7 8 2 -16
NET.PR (Qtr) 194 554 201 311 68 133 89 -256
NP % 13 20 12 12 3 7 3 -12
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Asset 10.573 10.611 10.074| 9.940 9.728 9.893 10.316|10.245
Liability 1.737 1.970 1.723| 1.791 1.890 2.176 2.165| 2.181
Equity 8.835 8.641 8.351| 8.148 7.838 7.717 8.151| 8.063
Capitalis. 24.323 22.653 18.504 22.892|20.984 23.369 19.315 10.396|10.396
Share(mil) 9.538 9.538 9.538 9.538 9.538 9.538 9.538 9.538
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
See ERROR and OMISSION
- http://www.investdata.net/QQBANTM.TXT
TINS Date : 29-10-10
Financial Performance (in billion Rp)
www.investdata.net
2010 2009| 2008|
29-10-10 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4|
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Sales 5.615 3.749 1.835 7.709 5.534 3.539 1.587 9.053
COGS 4.632 3.060 1.465 6.556 4.806 3.164 1.462 6.334
Gross Marg 983 689 369 1.152 728 374 125 2.718
GM (%) 17 18 20 14 13 10 7 30
Opr Profit 623 414 248| 688 401 172 18| 2.070
OP (%) 11 11 13 8 7 4 1 22
Net Profit 475 322 141| 313 170 42 14| 1.342
NP (%) 8 8 7 4 3 1 0 14
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Stk Price 2.850 3.150 2.150 2.375| 2.000 2.150 2.025 1.060| 1.080
Book Value 740 710 708| 681 655 631 763| 759
PBV 3,85 4,25 3,03 3,35| 2,93 3,28 3,21 1,39| 1,42
DER 0,32 0,41 0,38| 0,42 0,50 0,54 0,49| 0,51
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
ROE (%) 16 18 15| 9 6 2 1| 35
ROE (Qtr) 16 20 15 16 15 3 1 -15
ROA (%) 12 12 11| 6 4 1 1| 23
Opr prof/share 123 82 49| 136 79 34 3| 411
EPS 94 64 28| 62 33 8 2| 266
EPS (Qtr) 30 35 28| 28 25 5 2| -29
EPS (Annu) 125 128 112| 62 45 17 11| 266
PER 22,65 25,03 16,79 21,07| 32,08 47,47 118,99 92,36| 4,05
PER (Qtr) 23,48 25,96 14,99 21,07| 17,62 21,11 89,76 92,36| -9,10
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
COP (year) 17,27 19,09 13,04 12,05 14,62 20,20 29,49 71,45 2,63
CLOP(year) 18,69 20,51 14,81 13,43 16,69 23,29 34,44 96,62 3,57
CLOP(Qtr) 18,65 20,47 18,41 13,43 10,02 13,62 19,31 96,62 -12,36
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Sales Growth(%) 1 5 15 -14
Op.Prof Growth(%) 55 140 1.228 -66
Net.Prof/EPS Grow 177 652 881 -76
PEG (<1) 0,14 0,03 0,02| -0,42
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Sales(Qtr) 1.865 1.914 1.835 2.175 1.995 1.951 1.587 2.158
COGS (Qtr) 1.571 1.594 1.465 1.750 1.641 1.702 1.462 2.036
Gross Marg(Qtr) 293 319 369 424 353 249 125 121
GM (%) 15 16 20 19 17 12 7 5
OP.PR (Qtr) 208 166 248 286 229 154 18 -149
OP % 11 8 13 13 11 7 1 -6
NET.PR (Qtr) 152 180 141 142 128 28 14 -149
NP % 8 9 7 6 6 1 0 -6
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Asset 4.908 5.047 4.933| 4.855 4.956 4.889 5.723| 5.785
Liability 1.180 1.471 1.368| 1.425 1.657 1.711 1.879| 1.964
Equity 3.728 3.575 3.565| 3.430 3.299 3.178 3.843| 3.820
Capitalis. 14.344 15.854 10.820 11.953|10.066 10.820 10.191 5.335| 5.435
Share(mil) 5.033 5.033 5.033 5.033 5.033 5.033 5.033 5.033
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
See ERROR and OMISSION
- http://www.investdata.net/QQBTINS.TXT
INCO Date : 29-10-10
Financial Performance (in million US$)
www.investdata.net
2010 2009| 2008|
29-10-10 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4|
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Sales 947 619 255 760 526 276 121 1.312
COGS 485 312 150 516 373 240 114 808
Gross Marg 461 306 105 244 152 36 6 503
GM (%) 48 49 41 32 28 13 5 38
Opr Profit 442 293 100| 231 144 32 5| 478
OP (%) 46 47 39 30 27 11 4 36
Net Profit 328 218 76| 170 110 34 17| 359
NP (%) 34 35 29 22 20 12 14 27
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Stk Price 0,53 0,54 0,42 0,53| 0,41 0,46 0,46 0,25| 0,21
Book Value 0,16 0,17 0,15| 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,15| 0,15
PBV 3,34 3,43 2,49 3,44| 2,55 2,81 2,95 1,60| 1,40
DER 0,44 0,30 0,38| 0,29 0,19 0,18 0,20| 0,21
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
ROE (%) 27 26 20| 10 9 4 4| 23
ROE (Qtr) 27 34 20 15 18 4 4 -2
ROA (%) 19 20 14| 8 7 3 3| 19
Opr prof/share 0,04 0,03 0,01| 0,02 0,01 0,00 0,00| 0,05
EPS 0,03 0,02 0,01| 0,02 0,01 0,00 0,00| 0,04
EPS (Qtr) 0,01 0,01 0,01| 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00| -0,00
EPS (Annu) 0,04 0,04 0,03| 0,02 0,01 0,01 0,01| 0,04
PER 11,97 12,29 9,46 17,10| 23,65 31,11 66,25 35,75| 5,93
PER (Qtr) 11,95 12,27 7,26 17,10| 16,80 15,10 65,81 35,75|-54,32
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
COP (year) 8,89 9,13 7,05 12,98 17,38 23,86 70,80 118,17 4,46
CLOP(year) 10,07 10,31 7,90 14,41 19,35 25,46 75,17 132,64 5,13
CLOP(Qtr) 9,99 10,22 6,01 14,41 12,77 10,94 44,78 132,64 145,60
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Sales Growth(%) 79 124 110 -42
Op.Prof Growth(%) 207 807 1.833 -51
Net.Prof/EPS Grow 197 532 343 -52
PEG (<1) 0,06 0,02 0,05| -0,45
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Sales(Qtr) 327 363 255 234 249 154 121 180
COGS (Qtr) 172 162 150 142 133 125 114 175
Gross Marg(Qtr) 155 201 105 92 116 29 6 4
GM (%) 47 55 41 39 46 18 5 2
OP.PR (Qtr) 148 193 100 87 111 27 5 4
OP % 45 53 39 37 44 17 4 2
NET.PR (Qtr) 109 142 76 59 75 17 17 -9
NP % 33 39 29 25 30 11 14 -5
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Asset 2.265 2.158 2.094| 2.038 1.938 1.838 1.838| 1.842
Liability 694 498 576| 456 306 282 300| 321
Equity 1.570 1.660 1.517| 1.581 1.631 1.555 1.538| 1.520
Capitalis. 5.244 5.382 4.140 5.216| 4.029 4.581 4.581 2.456| 2.130
Share(mil) 9.936 9.936 9.936 9.936 9.936 9.936 9.936 9.936
---------- ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------
Note: USD= 9000
See ERROR and OMISSION
- http://www.investdata.net/QQBINCO.TXT
Trio metal comparison:
Date: 29-10-10 FINANCIAL RATIO COMPARISON
Sector: MINING METAL
Ranked by: ROE
www.investdata.net
|-- ---- ------- --- --- --- ---- ---- --- ---------- ===--------- ===------ --------- ----------- ----------- ----- ------
--------
| | | |(1) (2) (3)| (4) (5)|(6)| (7) | (10) | (8) | (9) |(11)(12)(13|(14)(15)(16| (17)| (18) |
MARKET|
| | | SALES |GRS OPR NET| |ROA| ROE | PER | COP | CLOP |YoY GROWTH |Q3/Q2 GROWT| | LAST |
CAP. |
|NO|STOC|bio Rp |MAR PRF PRF| PBV DER| | |*LAST*| | | | OPR NET| OPR NET| PEG |PRICE
|bio Rp |
| | |mio USD| % % % | | | Q2 Q3|QUARTR|TDY Q3 Q2|TDY Q3 Q2|TDY Q3 Q2|SAL PRF PRF|SAL PRF PRF| |
|mio Usd|
|-- ---- ------- === === === ==== ==== === === ---****** --- -- -- === -- -- === -- -- --- --- === --- *** ***
=====|======|=======|
| 1 INCO$ 947| 48 46 34| 2,5| 0,4| 19| 26 27|27 8| 8| 9 7| 6| 6 5| 7| 8 6| 79 207|197| -9 -23|-23| 0,05| 4.750|
3.933|
| 2 TINS 5.615| 17 11 8| 3,8| 0,3| 12| 18 16|16 23|22| 25 16|17| 19 13|18| 20 14| 1 55|177| -2 24|-15| 0,13| 2.850|
14.344|
| 3 ANTM 5.728| 31 22 16| 2,7| 0,2| 11| 17 14| 8 31|19| 17 12|14| 13 8|15| 14 9| -8 276|224|-46 -75|-64| 0,09| 2.550|
24.323|
|-- ---- ------- === === === ==== ==== === === --- ====== -- -- -- === -- -- === -- -- --- --- === --- --- ===
=====|======|=======|
1. GRS MRG: Gross Margin to Sales (in %)
2. OPR PRF: Operating Profit to Sales (in %)
3. NET PRF: Net Profit to Sales (in %)
4. PBV: Stock Price to Book value
5. DER: Debt Equity Ratio
6. ROA: Return On Asset (in %)
7. ROE: Return On Equity (in %)
QTR: ROE Quartely, using Most Recent Quarter's Net Profit
8. COP: Capitalisation to Operating Profit (in years)
9. CLOP: Capitalisation + Liability to Operating profit (in years)
10. PER: Price Earning Ratio
QTR: PER using Most Recent Quarter's Net Profit
11. Sales Growth in % (Year on Year comparison)
12. Operating Profit Growth in % (YOY comparison)
13. Net Profit Growth in % - (YOY comparison)
14. Sales Growth in % - (Most Recent Quarter comparison)
15. Operating Profit Growth in % - (MRQ comparison)
16. Net Profit Growth in % - (MRQ comparison)
17. PEG = PER / Net Profit Growth
- http://www.investdata.net/QZA3MIN6.TXT
Note:
- Terlihat INCO yg terbaik cuman harga Nickel lagi koreksi
Kalo Fifi liat didata dibawah ini kolom 13, angkanya SAMA yaitu 224%, jadi Investor Daily engga salah.
Lalu bedanya dimana ?
- Orang umumnya membanding profit 9 bln 2010 dibanding 9 bln 2009, yaitu Year On
Year Growth = 224% (YOY)
- Tapi embah juga menghitung Last profit 3 bln 2010 dibanding LAST QUARTER 3bln
2010, jadi embah bandingkan Profit Q3/2010 dan Q2/2010 (Most Recent Quarter/MRQ)
untuk MENUNJUKAN adanya: PERUBAHAN TREND dan DETERIORATIION dari performance
emiten secara CEPAT. Jika kita gunakan angka YOY, perubahan ini TIDAK jelas
kelihatan.
- Angka MRQ growth ini juga menunjukan kemungkinan REKAYASA yg dilakukan oleh emiten
untuk NGUMPULIN barang atau LEPAS barang. seperti terjadi pada sector CPO pada Q1
dan Q3/2010. Ini bisa terjadi karena laporan keuangan Interim itu TIDAK diaudit.
- Jadi angka MRQ GROWTH bisa menyesatkan, tapi angka ini HARUS diteliti kalo jatuh
karena ini bisa menunjukan awal dari kejatuhan saham karena Performance emiten
mulai menurun atau angkanya dikerjain oleh emiten agar mereka bisa beli diharga
murah atau jual diharga bagus.
Makanya embah bilang ini TEKA TEKI, coba dianalisa ...
Date: 29-10-10 FINANCIAL RATIO COMPARISON
Sector: MINING METAL
Ranked by: ROE
www.investdata.net
|-- ---- ------- --- --- --- ---- ---- --- ---------- ===--------- ===------ --------- ----------- ----------- ----- ------
--------
| | | |(1) (2) (3)| (4) (5)|(6)| (7) | (10) | (8) | (9) |(11)(12)(13|(14)(15)(16| (17)| (18) |
MARKET|
| | | SALES |GRS OPR NET| |ROA| ROE | PER | COP | CLOP |YoY GROWTH |Q3/Q2 GROWT| | LAST |
CAP. |
|NO|STOC|bio Rp |MAR PRF PRF| PBV DER| | |*LAST*| | | | OPR NET| OPR NET| PEG |PRICE
|bio Rp |
| | |mio USD| % % % | | | Q2 Q3|QUARTR|TDY Q3 Q2|TDY Q3 Q2|TDY Q3 Q2|SAL PRF PRF|SAL PRF PRF| |
|mio Usd|
|-- ---- ------- === === === ==== ==== === === ---****** --- -- -- === -- -- === -- -- --- --- === --- *** ***
=====|======|=======|
| 1 INCO$ 947| 48 46 34| 2,5| 0,4| 19| 26 27|27 8| 8| 9 7| 6| 6 5| 7| 8 6| 79 207|197| -9 -23|-23| 0,05| 4.750|
3.933|
| 2 TINS 5.615| 17 11 8| 3,8| 0,3| 12| 18 16|16 23|22| 25 16|17| 19 13|18| 20 14| 1 55|177| -2 24|-15| 0,13| 2.850|
14.344|
| 3 ANTM 5.728| 31 22 16| 2,7| 0,2| 11| 17 14| 8 31|19| 17 12|14| 13 8|15| 14 9| -8 276|224|-46 -75|-64| 0,09| 2.550|
24.323|
|-- ---- ------- === === === ==== ==== === === --- ====== -- -- -- === -- -- === -- -- --- --- === --- --- ===
=====|======|=======|
1. GRS MRG: Gross Margin to Sales (in %)
2. OPR PRF: Operating Profit to Sales (in %)
3. NET PRF: Net Profit to Sales (in %)
4. PBV: Stock Price to Book value
5. DER: Debt Equity Ratio
6. ROA: Return On Asset (in %)
7. ROE: Return On Equity (in %)
QTR: ROE Quartely, using Most Recent Quarter's Net Profit
8. COP: Capitalisation to Operating Profit (in years)
9. CLOP: Capitalisation + Liability to Operating profit (in years)
10. PER: Price Earning Ratio
QTR: PER using Most Recent Quarter's Net Profit
11. Sales Growth in % (Year on Year comparison)
12. Operating Profit Growth in % (YOY comparison)
13. Net Profit Growth in % - (YOY comparison)
14. Sales Growth in % - (Most Recent Quarter comparison)
15. Operating Profit Growth in % - (MRQ comparison)
16. Net Profit Growth in % - (MRQ comparison)
17. PEG = PER / Net Profit Growth
http://www.investdata.net/QZA3MIN6.TXT
Laporan keuangan sector coal banyak yg belum keluar...
Date: 29-10-10 FINANCIAL RATIO COMPARISON
Sector: COAL MINING
Ranked by: ROE
www.investdata.net
|-- ---- ------- --- --- --- ---- ---- --- ---------- ===--------- ===------ --------- ----------- ----------- ----- ------
--------
| | | |(1) (2) (3)| (4) (5)|(6)| (7) | (10) | (8) | (9) |(11)(12)(13|(14)(15)(16| (17)| (18) |
MARKET|
| | | SALES |GRS OPR NET| |ROA| ROE | PER | COP | CLOP |YoY GROWTH |Q3/Q2 GROWT| | LAST |
CAP. |
|NO|STOC|bio Rp |MAR PRF PRF| PBV DER| | |*LAST*| | | | OPR NET| OPR NET| PEG |PRICE
|bio Rp |
| | |mio USD| % % % | | | Q2 Q3|QUARTR|TDY Q3 Q2|TDY Q3 Q2|TDY Q3 Q2|SAL PRF PRF|SAL PRF PRF| |
|mio Usd|
|-- ---- ------- === === === ==== ==== === === ---****** --- -- -- === -- -- === -- -- --- --- === --- *** ***
=====|======|=======|
| 1 PTBA 5.901| 44 27 23| 7,6| 0,4| 22| 33 31|32 23|24| 24 21|20| 20 19|21| 21 20| -9 -44|-37| 4 -5| -9|-0,65|19.650|
45.293|
| 2 ADRO 18.074| 33 29 9| 3,6| 1,2| 5| 12 12|11 30|29| 28 27| 9| 8 8|12| 12 11| -9 -28|-51| 6 21| 86|-0,57| 2.100|
67.170|
|-- ---- ------- === === === ==== ==== === === --- ====== -- -- -- === -- -- === -- -- --- --- === --- --- ===
=====|======|=======|
1. GRS MRG: Gross Margin to Sales (in %)
2. OPR PRF: Operating Profit to Sales (in %)
3. NET PRF: Net Profit to Sales (in %)
4. PBV: Stock Price to Book value
5. DER: Debt Equity Ratio
6. ROA: Return On Asset (in %)
7. ROE: Return On Equity (in %)
QTR: ROE Quartely, using Most Recent Quarter's Net Profit
8. COP: Capitalisation to Operating Profit (in years)
9. CLOP: Capitalisation + Liability to Operating profit (in years)
10. PER: Price Earning Ratio
QTR: PER using Most Recent Quarter's Net Profit
11. Sales Growth in % (Year on Year comparison)
12. Operating Profit Growth in % (YOY comparison)
13. Net Profit Growth in % - (YOY comparison)
14. Sales Growth in % - (Most Recent Quarter comparison)
15. Operating Profit Growth in % - (MRQ comparison)
16. Net Profit Growth in % - (MRQ comparison)
17. PEG = PER / Net Profit Growth
http://www.investdata.net/QZA3COA6.TXT
Performance operasi ADRO memang Bagus:
- CLOPnya cuman 12, Bandingkan ama PTBA 21
- Net profit Q3/2010 tumbuh 86% terhadap Q2/2010
- Operating profit Q3/2010 tumbuh 21%
Yang MENGGANJAL ADRO ialah biaya NON OPERASIONIL (biaya lain2):
- Operating profit margin ADRO 29% dan PTBA 27%
- Tapi Net Profit marginnya ADRO 9% dan PTBA 23%, jadi ada BIAYA LAIN2 YG BESAR !!!
(Ini bukan biaya operasionil, jadi seharusnya bisa diperbaiki, embah engga tahu
ini biaya apa)
- Karena NPMnya cuman 9%, maka ROEnya 12% dan PERnya 29 sedangkan PTBA 23% dan 24.
Jadi emiten HARUS memangkas biaya lain2 ini, jika bisa maka potensi kenaikan ADRO cukup besar.
Note:
- Laba ADRO sebelum pajak penghasilan = 4024
- Pajak penghasilan = 2150, ini sekitar 53% dari laba, engga masuk akal ???
- Biaya2 ini yg bikin Net profit margin ADRO jadi kecil.
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