Misteri PTBA ?

Misteri PTBA ?

Kalo kita lihat Net profit PTBA dibagian BAWAH (QUARTERLY) terlihat Net profit quarterly TIDAK NORMAL karena berfluktuasi SANGAT HEBAT:

PTBA Date : 13-08-10
Financial Performance (in billion Rp)
www.investdata.net

2010 2009| 2008|
13-08-10 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4 ....Q3|
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Sales 3.794 1.781 8.947 6.554 4.501 2.330 7.216 4.967
COGS 2.125 1.075 4.104 2.721 1.825 873 3.686 2.505
Gross Marg 1.669 706 4.843 3.833 2.675 1.456 3.530 2.462
GM (%) 43 39 54 58 59 62 48 49
Opr Profit 1.046 422| 3.548 2.962 2.085 1.185| 2.493 1.768
OP (%) 27 23 39 45 46 50 34 35
Net Profit 908 373| 2.727 2.228 1.592 920| 1.707 1.321
NP (%) 23 20 30 33 35 39 23 26
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Stk Price 16.350 17.250 17.400|17.250 14.100 11.600 6.750| 6.900 14.500
Book Value 2.355 2.636| 2.474 2.323 2.047 2.134| 1.735 1.621
PBV 6,94 7,32 6,60| 6,97 6,07 5,66 3,16| 3,98 8,94
DER 0,43 0,41| 0,42 0,40 0,50 0,53| 0,53 0,42
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
ROE (%) 33 24| 47 55 67 74| 42 47
ROE (Qtr) 39 24 35 47 56 74 38 65
ROA (%) 23 17| 33 39 45 49| 27 33
Opr prof/share 454 183| 1.539 1.285 904 514| 1.082 767
EPS 394 161| 1.183 967 691 399| 741 573
EPS (Qtr) 232 161| 216 275 291 399| 167 265
EPS (Annu) 788 647| 1.183 1.289 1.382 1.598| 741 764
PER 20,74 21,88 26,87| 14,57 10,94 8,39 4,22| 9,31 18,96
PER (Qtr) 17,60 18,57 26,87| 19,89 12,77 9,95 4,22| 10,29 13,67
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
COP (year) 18,01 19,00 23,70 11,20 8,23 6,41 3,28 6,37 14,17
CLOP(year) 19,11 20,10 25,18 11,87 8,77 6,97 3,82 7,22 14,82
CLOP(Qtr) 16,04 16,87 25,18 17,97 9,87 8,08 3,82 6,21 10,80
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Sales Growth(%) -15 -23 24 31
Op.Prof Growth(%) -49 -64 42 67
Net.Prof/EPS Grow -42 -59 59 68
PEG (<1) -0,51 -0,45| 0,24 0,16
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Sales(Qtr) 2.013 1.781 2.392 2.053 2.170 2.330 2.248 2.078
COGS (Qtr) 1.050 1.075 1.382 895 952 873 1.180 975
Gross Marg(Qtr) 962 706 1.010 1.158 1.218 1.456 1.067 1.103
GM (%) 47 39 42 56 56 62 47 53
OP.PR (Qtr) 623 422 586 877 899 1.185 725 809
OP % 30 23 24 42 41 50 32 38
NET.PR (Qtr) 535 373 499 635 671 920 386 611
NP % 26 20 20 30 30 39 17 29
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------
Asset 7.740 8.582| 8.078 7.492 7.062 7.502| 6.106 5.288
Liability 2.313 2.508| 2.377 2.137 2.343 2.584| 2.108 1.552
Equity 5.426 6.074| 5.701 5.354 4.718 4.917| 3.998 3.735
Capitalis. 37.672 39.746 40.091|39.746 32.488 26.727 15.552|15.898 33.409
Share(mil) 2.304 2.304 2.304 2.304 2.304 2.304 2.304 2.304
---------- ------ ====== ------|------ ------ ====== ------|------ ------

See ERROR and OMISSION

- http://www.investdata.net/QQBPTBA.TXT

- Net profit Q4/2008 = 386 , NPM = 17%
- Net profit Q1/2009 = 920 , NPM = 39%

- Net profit Q1/2010 = 373 , NPM = 20%
- Net profit Q2/2010 = 535 , NPM = 26%

Note: Terlihat ini bukan pola musiman/siklus karena profit Q1/2009 besar dan profit Q1/2010 kecil.

KALAU INI DISENGAJA (ulang KALAU !!!):
- Profit Q4/2008 dibikin kecil agar orang Cut Loss
- Sesudah orang Cut Loss, profit Q1/2009 dibuat besar dan harga naik tinggi.

- Profit Q1/2010 dibikin kecil dan Q2/2010 dibuat besar Apakah scenario diatas akan berulang dalam skala yg lebih kecil ?.

Grafik PTBA:



- http://www.obrolanbandar.com/pwlptba.png

Technical mengarah kebawah kalo Support jebol tapi kalo ini rekayasa maka PTBA mengarah keatas, jadi masih belum jelas... Nonton aja dulu... hehehe...