INTP Date : 22-03-12
Financial Performance (in billion Rp)
www.investdata.net
2011| 2010|
22-03-12 ....Q4 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Sales 13.887 9.779 6.331 2.943 11.137 8.107 5.360 2.549
COGS 7.473 5.193 3.329 1.505 5.597 4.013 2.586 1.226
Gross Marg 6.414 4.585 3.001 1.438 5.540 4.094 2.773 1.323
GM (%) 46 46 47 48 49 50 51 51
Opr Profit 4.418 3.195 2.109 1.060| 4.061 2.974 2.051 980
OP (%) 31 32 33 36 36 36 38 38
Net Profit 3.596 2.585 1.729 865| 3.224 2.382 1.640 786
NP (%) 25 26 27 29 28 29 30 30
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Stk Price 18.250 17.050 14.000 17.050 16.350|15.950 18.400 15.800 14.250
Book Value 4.266 3.991 3.758 3.787| 3.552 3.323 3.121 3.115
PBV 4,28 4,00 3,51 4,54 4,32| 4,49 5,54 5,06 4,57
DER 0,16 0,16 0,24 0,13| 0,17 0,15 0,26 0,18
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
ROE (%) 22 23 25 24| 24 25 28 27
ROE (Qtr) 25 23 24 24 25 24 29 27
ROA (%) 19 20 20 21| 21 22 22 23
Opr prof/share 1.200 868 572 288| 1.103 807 557 266
EPS 977 702 469 235| 876 647 445 213
EPS (Qtr) 274 232 234 235| 228 201 231 213
EPS (Annu) 977 936 939 940| 876 863 891 854
PER 18,68 17,45 14,95 18,15 17,39| 18,21 21,32 17,73 16,68
PER (Qtr) 16,61 15,52 15,04 18,16 17,39| 17,43 22,80 17,03 16,68
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
COP (year) 15,21 14,21 12,10 14,88 14,18 14,46 17,08 14,17 13,38
CLOP(year) 15,76 14,76 12,64 15,65 14,63 15,02 17,54 14,89 13,92
CLOP(Qtr) 13,34 12,39 15,75 14,63 14,02 18,86 14,25 13,92
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Sales Growth(%) 24 20 18 15
Op.Prof Growth(%) 8 7 2 8
Net.Prof/EPS Grow 11 8 5 10
PEG (<1) 1,51 1,75 3,34 1,73
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Sales(Qtr) 4.108 3.448 3.387 2.943 3.029 2.747 2.810 2.549
COGS (Qtr) 2.279 1.864 1.824 1.505 1.583 1.426 1.359 1.226
Gross Marg(Qtr) 1.828 1.583 1.563 1.438 1.446 1.320 1.450 1.323
GM (%) 44 45 46 48 47 48 51 51
OP.PR (Qtr) 1.222 1.086 1.048 1.060 1.087 922 1.071 980
OP % 29 31 30 36 35 33 38 38
NET.PR (Qtr) 1.011 856 864 865 842 742 853 786
NP % 24 24 25 29 27 27 30 30
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Asset 18.151 16.995 17.095 15.812|15.346 14.061 14.425 13.579
Liability 2.445 2.300 3.260 1.869| 2.268 1.826 2.933 2.112
Equity 15.706 14.695 13.834 13.942|13.077 12.235 11.492 11.467
Capitalis. 67.182 62.765 51.537 62.765 60.188|58.715 67.734 58.163 52.457
Share(mil) 3.681 3.681 3.681 3.681 3.681 3.681 3.681 3.681
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
See ERROR and OMISSION- http://www.investdata.net/QQHINTP.TXT
Cement Sector:
Date: 22-03-12 FINANCIAL RATIO COMPARISON 2011
Sector: CEMENT
Ranked by: Operating Profit Growth
www.investdata.net
|-- ---- ------- --- --- --- ---- ---- --- ---------- ===--------- ===------ --------- ----------- ----------- ----- ------ --------
| | | |(1) (2) (3)| (4) (5)|(6)| (7) | (10) | (8) | (9) |(11)(12)(13|(14)(15)(16| (17)| (18) | MARKET|
| | | SALES |GRS OPR NET| |ROA| ROE | PER | COP | CLOP |YoY GROWTH |Q4/Q3 GROWT| | LAST | CAP. |
|NO|STOC|bio Rp |MAR PRF PRF| PBV DER| | |*LAST*| | | | OPR NET| OPR NET| PEG |PRICE |bio Rp |
| | |mio USD| % % % | | | Q3 Q4|QUARTR|TDY Q4 Q3|TDY Q4 Q3|TDY Q4 Q3|SAL PRF PRF|SAL PRF PRF| | |mio Usd|
|-- ---- ------- === === === ==== ==== === === ---****** --- -- -- === -- -- === -- -- --- --- === --- --- === =====|======|=======|
| 1 SMCB 7.523| 37 22 14| 2,5| 0,4| 9| 13 14|17 14|18| 15 13|11| 9 8|13| 11 10| 26 23| 28| 13 10| 14| 0,64| 2.500| 19.157|
| 2 INTP 13.887| 46 31 25| 4,2| 0,1| 19| 23 22|25 16|18| 17 14|15| 14 12|15| 14 12| 24 8| 11| 19 12| 18| 1,62|18.250| 67.182|
|-- ---- ------- === === === ==== ==== === === --- ====== -- -- -- === -- -- === -- -- --- --- === --- --- === =====|======|=======|
1. GRS MRG: Gross Margin to Sales (in %)
2. OPR PRF: Operating Profit to Sales (in %)
3. NET PRF: Net Profit to Sales (in %)
4. PBV: Stock Price to Book value
5. DER: Debt Equity Ratio
6. ROA: Return On Asset (in %)
7. ROE: Return On Equity (in %)
QTR: ROE Quartely, using Most Recent Quarter's Net Profit
8. COP: Capitalisation to Operating Profit (in years)
9. CLOP: Capitalisation + Liability to Operating profit (in years)
10. PER: Price Earning Ratio
QTR: PER using Most Recent Quarter's Net Profit
11. Sales Growth in % (Year on Year comparison)
12. Operating Profit Growth in % (YOY comparison)
13. Net Profit Growth in % - (YOY comparison)
14. Sales Growth in % - (Most Recent Quarter comparison)
15. Operating Profit Growth in % - (MRQ comparison)
16. Net Profit Growth in % - (MRQ comparison)
17. PEG = PER / Net Profit Growth- http://www.investdata.net/QZB4CEM2.TXT
Note:
- PEG INTP = 1,62
- Angka PEG diatas 1 ini membuat INTP susah membuat HIGH yg lebih tinggi dari HIGH September 2010 dalam 1,5 tahun terakhir.
INTP's Graphic:
- http://www.invest2000.net/pwqintp120322.png
Didalam valuasi harga saham, sangat sering ditemukan hasil valuasi yang berbeda, jadi perbedaan dalam perhitungan harga valuasi BIASA BIASA SAJA ... inilah yg membuat ilmu valuasi MENARIK .... hehehe...
Perbedaan hasil perhitungan Valuasi diakibatkan:
- Metoda perhitungan valuasi yg berbeda
- Asumsi yg berbeda
- Tingkat Simplifikasi permasalahan yg berbeda
- Perbedaan persepsi tentang masa depan yg berbeda
- Dll
Metoda PEG bisa dibilang metoda LOGIKA SEDERHANA agar Investor retail bisa melakukan keputusan Investasi secara mudah ...
LOGIKA PEG:
- Untuk mempertahankan PER ys sekarang maka perusahaan minimal harus tumbuh sebesar PER.
Jadi kalo PER saat ini = 15 maka Profit harus tumbus sebesar 15%, kalo Profit tumbuh lebih kecil dari 15% maka PER akan naik diatas 15 dan saham menjadi lebih mahal.
Jadi kalo PEG = 1 maka STATUS QUO tahun depan akan sama kalo Profit naik 15% dan harga saham naik 15% maka PER akan tetap.
Semakin kecil angka PEG dibawah satu, semakin bagus saham tsb
untuk Investasi:
- Jadi jika PER = 5 dan Growth diharapakan 20% maka PEG = 5/20=0,25
- Jadi kalo tahun depan harga saham naik 2x maka PER menjadi 10 dan jika Prediksi Growth sesuai yaitu 20% maka PEG menjadi 10/20 = 0,5
- Jadi angka PEG dibawah 1 menunjukan Potensi kenaikan harga jika Prediksi Growth tercapai ..
No comments:
Post a Comment