Thursday, March 29, 2012

SMRA: Final Result 2011

SMRA                       Date : 28-03-12
               Financial Performance (in billion Rp)
                          www.investdata.net
             
                                         2011|                       2010|
         28-03-12 ....Q4 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|....Q4 ....Q3 ....Q2 ....Q1|
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Sales              2.359  1.587    938    399  1.700  1.124    677    310
COGS               1.312    846    486    217    947    580    334    168
Gross Marg         1.047    740    451    181    753    543    343    142
GM (%)                44     46     48     45     44     48     50     45
Opr Profit           564    383    235     83|   398    290    176     77
OP (%)                23     24     25     20     23     25     26     24
Net Profit           392    258    155     58|   233    173    101     51
NP (%)                16     16     16     14     13     15     15     16
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Stk Price   1.500  1.240  1.000  1.140  1.160| 1.090  1.100    850    830
Book Value           358    342    331    341|   311    323    295    280
PBV          4,18   3,46   2,92   3,44   3,40|  3,50   3,40   2,87   2,95
DER                 2,29   2,19   2,11   1,91|  1,87   1,79   1,56   1,50
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
ROE (%)               15     14     13     10|    10     11     10     11
ROE (Qtr)             21     17     17     10     11     13     10     11
ROA (%)                4      4      4      3|     3      3      3      4
Opr prof/share        82     56     34     13|    58     45     26     12
EPS                   57     37     22      9|    33     27     15      7
EPS (Qtr)             19     15     14      9|     8     11      7      7
EPS (Annu)            57     50     45     36|    33     36     30     31
PER         26,30  21,74  19,76  24,86  32,05| 32,09  30,55  28,27  26,16
PER (Qtr)   19,25  15,91  16,55  19,89  32,05| 31,08  24,72  28,35  26,16
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
COP (year)  18,26  15,10  13,31  16,41  22,31  18,78  18,21  16,33  17,22
CLOP(year)  28,25  25,08  23,30  26,48  34,85  28,80  27,79  25,17  25,93
CLOP(Qtr)          19,53  20,13  20,54  34,85  26,52  23,55  22,47  25,93
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Sales Growth(%)       38     41     38     28
Op.Prof Growth(%)     41     31     33      7
Net.Prof/EPS Grow     67     49     52     14
PEG (<1)            0,32   0,40   0,47   2,28
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Sales(Qtr)           772    648    539    399    576    446    367    310
COGS (Qtr)           465    359    269    217    367    245    166    168
Gross Marg(Qtr)      306    289    270    181    209    200    200    142
GM (%)                39     44     50     45     36     44     54     45
OP.PR (Qtr)          181    147    151     83    108    114     98     77
OP %                  23     22     28     20     18     25     26     24
NET.PR (Qtr)         133    102     97     58     60     71     50     51
NP %                  17     15     18     14     10     15     13     16
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
Asset              8.099  7.432  6.986  6.393| 6.139  5.788  5.124  4.511
Liability          5.634  5.102  4.742  4.194| 3.999  3.711  3.119  2.703
Equity             2.464  2.329  2.244  2.198| 2.139  2.076  2.004  1.808
Capitalis. 10.309  8.522  6.802  7.724  7.466| 7.491  7.056  5.759  5.342
Share(mil)         6.873  6.802  6.775  6.436  6.873  6.415  6.775  6.436
---------- ------ ====== ------ ------ ------ ====== ------ ------ ------
 
See ERROR and OMISSION


- http://www.investdata.net/QQHSMRA.TXT

Property Sector:

Date: 28-03-12                     FINANCIAL RATIO COMPARISON 2011
                                          Sector: PROPERTY
                                 Ranked by: Operating Profit Growth
                                          www.investdata.net 
 
|-- ---- ------- --- --- --- ---- ---- --- ---------- ===--------- ===------ --------- ----------- ----------- ----- ------ --------
|  |    |       |(1) (2) (3)| (4)  (5)|(6)|    (7)   |     (10)   |   (8)   |   (9)   |(11)(12)(13|(14)(15)(16| (17)| (18) | MARKET|
|  |    | SALES |GRS OPR NET|         |ROA|    ROE   |     PER    |   COP   |   CLOP  |YoY GROWTH |Q4/Q3 GROWT|     | LAST |  CAP. |
|NO|STOC|bio Rp |MAR PRF PRF| PBV  DER|   |      |*LAST*|         |         |         |    OPR NET|    OPR NET| PEG |PRICE |bio Rp |
|  |    |mio USD| %   %   % |         |   | Q3 Q4|QUARTR|TDY Q4 Q3|TDY Q4 Q3|TDY Q4 Q3|SAL PRF PRF|SAL PRF PRF|     |      |mio Usd|
|-- ---- ------- === === === ==== ==== === === ---****** --- -- -- === -- -- === -- -- --- --- === --- --- === =====|======|=======|
| 1 LPCK     902| 43  33  28| 2,1| 1,4| 12| 27  31|53  4| 6|  4  5| 5|  4  4| 9|  8  8|123 168|294| 30 105|121| 0,02| 2.525|  1.757|
| 2 ASRI   1.381| 58  50  43| 3,9| 1,1| 10| 21  21|27 14|17| 13 12|15| 11 10|20| 16 14| 74 108|107| 12  30| 50| 0,17|   600| 10.717|
| 3 SMRA   2.359| 44  23  16| 4,1| 2,2|  4| 14  15|21 19|26| 21 19|18| 15 13|28| 25 23| 38  41| 67| 19  22| 30| 0,39| 1.500| 10.309|
|-- ---- ------- === === === ==== ==== === === --- ====== -- -- -- === -- -- === -- -- --- --- === --- --- === =====|======|=======|
 
1. GRS MRG: Gross Margin to Sales (in %)
2. OPR PRF: Operating Profit to Sales (in %)
3. NET PRF: Net Profit to Sales (in %)
4. PBV: Stock Price to Book value
5. DER: Debt Equity Ratio
6. ROA: Return On Asset (in %)
7. ROE: Return On Equity (in %)
         QTR: ROE Quartely, using Most Recent Quarter's Net Profit
8. COP: Capitalisation to Operating Profit (in years)
9. CLOP: Capitalisation + Liability to Operating profit (in years)
10. PER: Price Earning Ratio
         QTR: PER using Most Recent Quarter's Net Profit
11. Sales Growth in % (Year on Year comparison)
12. Operating Profit Growth in % (YOY comparison)
13. Net Profit Growth in % - (YOY comparison)
14. Sales Growth in % - (Most Recent Quarter comparison)
15. Operating Profit Growth in % - (MRQ comparison)
16. Net Profit Growth in % - (MRQ comparison)
17. PEG = PER / Net Profit Growth

- http://www.investdata.net/QZB4PRO2.TXT

Note:

- Net Profit margin in Percent = Net profit / Sales
- NPM ASRI vs SMRA = 43% vs 16%
- Gross margin = 58% vs 44%
- Terlihat NPM ASRI sangat SUPER = 43% dibanding SMRA yg cuman 16%
- Jika harga jual property turun, ASRI akan bisa LEBIH bertahan dibanding SMRA karena BUMPER prosentase labanya tinggi...
- Sebaliknya jika harga jual property naik, maka Net profit growth SMRA akan naik lebih cepat karena angka NPM nya masih rendah dibanding ASRI...

- http://www.investdata.net/QZB4PRO2.TXT

Property sector yg kelimpahan rezeki dari Peraturan relokasi industry adalah SSIA dan LPCK ....

Tentunya Rezeki yg MELIMPAH ini TIDAK berlangsung terus, jadi Profit Growth yg SUPER akan kembali ke NORMAL...

Tapi Profit Growth yg SUPER akan memicu kenaikan harga yg EXTRIM, sampe harga berapa dia akan naik, tidak ada yg tahu ...

Ini sama dengan tegangan listrik 220 V, tapi kalo kita tekan tombol ON dan OFF secara tiba2 maka tegangan listrik akan naik tinggi dan menjebolkan alat listrik tsb.. Berapa tinggi tegangan akan
naik tentunya tergantung berapa GILA orang yg menekan tombol ON dan OFF tsb ....

Begitu juga dengan kenaikan harga saham dari emiten yg dapet berkah SUPER, bertambah gila Pelaku Pasarnya maka bertambah gila naiknya .... Jadi ini bukan case Fundamental SEMATA tapi
case IRASIONALITAS pasar, Buying Pressure dari Buyer yg OVER EXCITED dengan SUPER GOOD NEWS akan menimbulkan PRICE OVERSHOOTING JAUH diatas harga WAJAR.. Berapa tinggi Overshootingnya ? ... Nobody knows ....

Kesimpulan: OPTIMIS saja tapi pasang Trailing Stop ...

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