Monday, November 14, 2011

ITMG: Q3/2011 Result + TP DBS = 49450

Target ITMG dari DBS = 49450

Chart:
- http://www.obrolanbandar.com/pisitmgdbs.png

Research DBS:
* ITMG: Targets higher production in 4Q

*** Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG) expects 5-7%qoq higher production in 4Q to 7.3m tons from 6.8m tons in 3Q despite of possible less favorable weather conditions compare to 3Q. This would be driven by new contribution from the new mines, Bharinto and TD Mayang.

*** We expect earnings growth in 4Q would largely come from higher production as we expect ASP to be flat in 4Q at US$97-98/ton as the company has priced 95% of this year output and has contracted 100% of this year production. Maintain BUY, Rp49,450 TP, which is pegged to blended valuation of 12x FY12F PE and 5x P/BV (5-year average).

*** ITMG is our top pick in the sector for its strong price execution track record and as a coal miner with good corporate governance. The company also offers attractive dividend yield of up to 4% (net of interim 2.6% yield) assuming 80% payout ratio against our forecast of 60%. This is premised on its US$570m net cash as at end 3Q11, as we do not expect any acquisitions this year.

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- Minyak udah naik, tinggal tunggu apakah ini adalah jebakan atau scenario mining 2008 ?

Scenario mining 2008 adalah scenario mengangkat index mining sambil ngebolongin LQ45 ...

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